This month’s In Focus analyzes the “Deterrence of Aggression “military campaign spearheaded by the Salafi-jihadi militant group, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. The military offensive took the Syrian Arab Army and their allies by surprise, enabling their rivals to conquer the cities of Aleppo and to seize SAA and Iranian proxy weapons stockpiles in several days. The rapid fall of Aleppo motivated HTS to push forward and expand the offensive, causing additional cities to fall. As the campaign reached its eleventh day, the entire Assad regime collapsed, ending the reign of the Assad family in Syria. This attack commenced against the background of Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine and the major losses suffered by Lebanese Hezbollah in their war against Israel, thus reducing their ability to come to Assad’s aid, which in any case would have been impractical, amid the total collapse of the SAA and the lack of resistance. While the gains made by HTS and its allies are considerable, it remains to be seen if order is maintainable and if most of the actors can reach a consensus. This development is a major turning point in the Syrian Civil War, amid the significant increase in military operations by local and regional actors.
Several statements were published by HTS and other militant groups during the “Deterrence of Aggression” campaign. HTS statements were carefully structured to address various audiences and mainly to project unity and HTS’ alleged adherence to human rights and their dedication to a just struggle for freedom, demonstrating a clear awareness of their problematic image as global jihadists. Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State shared their own views on the rapidly developing situation in Syria. On the one hand, IS communicated their denouncement of HTS as apostates, amid possible preparations by IS Al-Sham Province to exploit the security vacuum. On the other hand, Al-Qaeda extended congratulations to HTS, while stressing the importance of strict adherence to Sharia principles in their newly established control and governance.
In recent months, an Islamic State-affiliated chatroom published several new issues discussing COTS UAVs, intended for IS adherents to increase their knowledge and possibly employ them in terrorist plots. These manuals expand on foundational concepts, offering detailed instructions on UAV assembly and operation, reflecting a broader trend among jihadist groups to systematize the weaponization of COTS drones. The latest IS-affiliated manual analyzes First-Person-View racing drones. The war in Ukraine seems to have impacted jihadist pursuits in regard to weaponizing UAVs and this is also evident in documentation from HTS and other Salafi-jihadi groups in Syria.
This month’s Who’s Who? analyzes a Facebook profile of a fighter from Katibat al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (KTJ), operating in Syria. The profile is very active on Facebook and other social media accounts used by the POI, for the same purpose of distributing content regarding the fighting in Syria alongside HTS against regime forces. Additionally, the person behind these profiles distributes and expresses his clear support for Al-Qaeda, as well as the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades propaganda.
This month’s Instant Messaging Applications analysis focuses on a WhatsApp group affiliated with Hezbollah and an investigation of two phone numbers with Spanish country codes that participate in this group. In addition to their participation in the WhatsApp group, the two numbers were also found to be linked to each other on other platforms.
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